In recent years, the question of how legally purchased firearms end up being used in crimes has garnered significant attention from researchers and policymakers alike. A study conducted by researchers at the University of California, Davis Violence Prevention Research Program (VPRP) sheds light on this issue by tracking the journey of firearms from their legal purchase to their eventual use in crimes within California.
The study’s findings reveal that guns reported lost are three times more likely to be used in a crime, and stolen guns are almost nine times more likely to be used, highlighting the critical role of theft and loss in the illegal firearm market. The research was published in the journal Injury Epidemiology.
The motivation behind this extensive research was to update and expand the understanding of the factors contributing to firearms being used in criminal activities. With over 5.2 million handguns and almost 2.9 million long guns legally purchased in California between 1996 and 2021, and 45,247 of these guns recovered from crime scenes between 2010-2021, the study aimed to identify common characteristics or patterns that distinguish crime-involved guns from those that are not involved in crimes.
“Tracking the movement of firearms from legal purchase to use in crimes can help inform prevention of firearm injuries and deaths,” explained Hannah S. Laqueur, senior author of the study and an associate professor in the UC Davis Health Department of Emergency Medicine.
The researchers relied primarily on three key sources of data: California crime gun recovery records from 2010–2021, Dealer Records of Sales (DROS) from 1996–2021, and firearm purchaser criminal history records from 1981–2021. The crime gun and DROS records are maintained in the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ) Automated Firearms System (AFS), which includes detailed information on each firearm’s make, model, caliber or gauge, serial number, transaction type, and date.
These records were linked to the DROS records, which contain comprehensive information about each firearm transaction, including the buyer’s details and the type of transaction (e.g., sale, transfer, pawn redemption). The firearm purchaser criminal history records, maintained in the CA DOJ Automated Criminal History System (ACHS), provided additional insights into the backgrounds of individuals purchasing firearms.
A key finding was the heightened risk associated with firearms reported as lost or stolen. Specifically, guns reported lost were found to be three times more likely to be used in a crime, while stolen guns were nearly nine times more likely to be involved in criminal activity. This highlights the critical role of theft and loss in the movement of firearms into the illicit market, suggesting that interventions aimed at securing firearms and preventing theft could significantly reduce the number of guns available for criminal use.
“Theft is an important source of crime guns, whether as the proximal source to the criminal possessor or simply as an important source of firearms entering the illicit market,” Laqueur said.
The study also reaffirmed several risk factors previously identified in the literature, while shedding light on new ones. For instance, it confirmed the association between certain characteristics of firearm dealers, such as being located in city centers and having a history of prior sales of firearms that became involved in crimes, and the likelihood of their firearms being recovered in crimes. These findings suggest that monitoring and potentially regulating dealers based on these risk factors could be an effective strategy for reducing the flow of legal firearms into the criminal market.
In terms of firearm characteristics, the researchers found that certain features were associated with a higher likelihood of a firearm being used in a crime. Firearms that were inexpensive, easily concealable, and of medium or larger caliber were more likely to be recovered from crime scenes. This points to the possibility that firearms with these characteristics are either more attractive to criminals or more likely to be stolen and used in crimes.
The researchers also investigated the characteristics of firearm purchasers that were associated with the likelihood of a firearm being used in a crime. Younger purchasers, those with a history of misdemeanor convictions, and those making multiple purchases within a short time period were found to be more likely to have their firearms end up in crime scenes.
Interestingly, the research revealed that firearms were less likely to be recovered in crimes if the last legal purchaser was known to be no longer in possession of the firearm, indicating that the path from legal purchase to criminal use often involves intermediate transactions or theft.
“We were able to identify that associations found 20 years ago are still relevant today — cheap, semiautomatic, and larger caliber handguns are more likely to be recovered in crimes,” said Sonia L. Robinson, first author of the study. Robinson is an epidemiologist and a research data analyst at VPRP. “We found that several additional factors were associated with firearm recovery — specifically, the purchaser having a previous criminal history and a firearm being reported lost or stolen.”
Lastly, the researchers conducted an exploratory evaluation of racial disparities in handgun recovery in crimes. They found significant associations between the race and ethnicity of firearm purchasers and the likelihood of their firearms being recovered in crimes, with firearms purchased by Black individuals being more likely to be used in crimes than those purchased by individuals of other races.
The study, “Purchaser, firearm, and retailer characteristics associated with crime gun recovery: a longitudinal analysis of firearms sold in California from 1996 to 2021,” was authored by Sonia L. Robinson, Christopher D. McCort, Colette Smirniotis, Garen J. Wintemute, and Hannah S. Laqueur.
